The Future of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in the civilian sector.

I am a graduate student of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) currently enrolled in UNSY 501 Application of Unmanned Systems.  As presented in the course syllabus:

This nine week course prepares students to understand the application of unmanned systems and their respective elements and technology to the operational domains, including atmospheric, exo-atmospheric, ground, and maritime environments. It includes applications, business cases, selection criteria, limitations and constraints, and ethical, safety, and legal considerations. Students will research, appraise, and recommend unmanned system tasking, environmental operational requirements, and system collaboration opportunities.

In realizing these course objectives students have been tasked with creating a research blog as a means of documenting our research as it relates to certain articles applicable to unmanned systems in both the civilian and military sectors.

My first blog for this week’s assignment is focused on the future of UGVs in the civilian sector and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this technology.

Intel / Strategic Analytics

A recent study and research of autonomous vehicles reported that by the year 2050, driverless vehicles will account for $7 trillion worth of economic activity and new efficiencies.  That activity will include nearly $4 trillion from driverless ride-hailing and nearly $3 trillion from driverless delivery and business logistics (Morris, 2017).

The study also claims that because of the autonomous nature of driverless vehicles and their potential for greater safety, nearly half a million lives could be saved between 2035 and 2045. One can assume the reason that immediate gains from this technology are not achieved until 2035 is due primarily to a cultural hurdle and not a technical one.  Andrew Moore, science dean at Carnegie Mellon recently stated “No one is going to want to realize autonomous driving into the world until there’s proof that it’s much safer, like a factor of 100 safer, than having a human drive” (LaFrance, 2015).

What the study failed to account for was the contradiction of transportation innovation that may complicate the report’s conclusions.  Where newer technology is intended to solve our transportation woes it induces an adverse effect by increasing demand for that technology. A prime example is that of the “induced demand” that often instantly clogs newly-built highways (Morris, para. 5, 2017).

The report also claimed that driverless cars could eventually save 250 million commuting hours as the global trend towards urbanization becomes a significant reality.  An adverse opinion was provided by D. Muoio in her article, Self-driving cars could be terrible for traffic — here's why (2017);

Self-driving cars might make your future commute a lot more pleasant, but they won't eliminate traffic (para. 1).

Lew Fulton, a co-director of the STEPS program at UC Davis' Institute of Transportation Studies (ITP), told Business Insider that autonomous vehicles won't fix congestion woes unless a pricing system is put in place that discourages zero-occupancy vehicles.  "We are especially concerned about zero-occupant vehicles that can happen with automated vehicles, Fulton said.  "That scenario is especially plausible with private ownership of those vehicles and no limits to what we can do with them."

For example, many companies are interested in programming autonomous cars to run errands or pick-up packages, but these efforts could increase traffic by multiplying the number of zero-occupant cars, or "zombie cars," on the road, Fulton said.

Congestion could also worsen as companies like Lucid Motors explore designing self-driving vehicles around comfort, like installing reclining seats (Figure 1).

Figure 1.  Reclining seats in Lucid Motors' autonomous car, the Lucid Air

Where urbanization increases and populations become more centralized the need for personal transportation is no longer an issue.  However, over populated areas become less appealing to some as urbanization leads to lack of jobs, air pollution, negative impact on biodiversity, disease and crime (Reese, 2017).  Not wanting the urban way of life driverless cars could actually encourage some people to live even farther away from workplaces, or to take even more daily trips, because they can spend the time in their car working.

References

LaFrance, A. (2015). Self-Driving Cars Could Save 300,000 Lives Per Decade in America Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/09/self-driving-cars-could-save-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/

Morris, D.Z. (2017).  Driverless Cars Will Be Part of a $7 Trillion Market by 2050 Retrieved from http://fortune.com/2017/06/03/autonomous-vehicles-market/

Reese, J. (2017). 5 Major Problems of Urbanization Retrieved from http://peopleof.oureverydaylife.com/5-major-problems-urbanization-7031.html

The Future of the UAS

9.4 - Blog:

In closing out the last of nine weeks of study in ERAUs-WW, Masters of Science, ASCI 637 Unmanned Systems Operations and Payload course, this blog was created to discuss an article centered on the future of unmanned aerial systems and where UAS technology is going to advance in the next five to ten years. It was also required to include aspects regarding new or modifying current regulations to aid in the implementation of the unmanned aerial systems into the national airspace. The article could be no more than 12 months old. Here is my perspective, with no article for support.

If UAS Integration into the NAS were classified as a “can of worms," then the analogy that it keeps getting kicked down the road or into the future wouldn’t be too farfetched. Articles, journals, books, online media and classrooms alike, are filled with hyperbole on where UAS technology will be five to ten years down the road.

The truth of the matter is; UAS and the technology that drives them are already here, in all their glory. From systems <55 lbs. to those equivalent in size to a Boeing 737, UAS operated by both public and civil sectors are ready to inundate the NAS with all their sensory platforms, human factor studies, manufacturing advancements and operator training/skill sets. Unfortunately, the technology arrived at such an expeditious rate that no crystal ball could prepare those that regulate the NAS and the aircraft that fly safely in it, with the ability to create the requisite guidance and regulations to allow for safe and unfettered access to it. Driven by DoD needs and applications, regulators worldwide failed to comprehend the quickness with which UAS technology evolved and was embraced by the civilian populace. As technology was quickly developed, implemented and proven for DoD/Public operations (albeit on a much larger scale), the civil sector drove hard to miniaturize the DoD’s proven technology for their own commercial applications. That was five to ten years if not more, “cans down the road” ago. Aside from the soon to be released Part 107-Operation and Certification of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems rule, “Today” is where UAS technology is, those that wish to integrate the NAS only have to wait for the regulators to catch up, perhaps another five to ten years in the future.

On a day-to-day basis I am constantly aware of the adage, “you don’t know what you don’t know." Unfortunately, with that adage being all to true, it will only be after UAS have integrated into the NAS and technologies and regulations perceived to be the answer, fail. Only then will new and improved regulations and supporting technology be developed to ensure the NAS remains safe for all those that operate in it.

”Utilities see potential in drones to inspect lines, towers”

The caption says it all. Public utilities, commercial and DoD operators have all identified a need for “drones”. Unfortunately, aside from granted exemptions (333) and Certificates of Authorizations (COAs) the lack of clear regulations allowing for UAS integration in the NAS, only leaves those wishing to do so with “seeing a potential” to conduct those operations.

The captioned article published in The Press Enterprise was written by Mary Esch (2015), wherein she introduced the often dangerous work of inspecting power lines and transmission towers by lineman and the potential benefits of using remote controlled drones to mitigate those dangers. However, strict regulatory restrictions defining commercial operations have strained the ability of Utilities wishing to take advantage of such technology.

Utilities spend millions of dollars inspecting power lines, often in hard to reach places using manned vehicles. The remote controlled systems are equipped with cameras and additional sensors that enable the inspectors to inspect wind turbines, utility poles, power lines and transformers all from the safe confines of terra-firma. These inspections are conducted at a fraction of the cost of the manned operations.

Andrew Bordine, a Consumers Energy executive stated, “With wind turbines, you’ll have a couple of guys hanging off blades by a rope a couple hundred feet in the air to do inspections visually, at a cost upwards of $10,000 per site. We can get the same results with a UAV for $300, without putting workers in danger.”

Navigant (2016) presented in part, the following market assessment:

“By the beginning of 2015, there were nearly 270,000 individual wind turbines operating globally. The more than 800,000 blades spinning on these turbines are battered by the elements over time and gradually wear out. Deterioration can cause reduced energy production in early stages and catastrophic and costly blade collapse if left unnoticed. This is driving a brisk business in wind turbine blade inspections, a role that has traditionally been accomplished from the ground with simple visual inspections or more complicated and risky rope or platform access. A new approach using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, is rapidly muscling in as a middle option.”

Doing the math is the easy part, publishing an acceptable regulation to allow for these operations has potentially been more difficult than imagined.

References

Esch, M., (2015, November 23) Utilities see potential in drones to inspect lines, towers, clipping from The Press Enterprise, Moreno Valley, CA. Copy in possession of R Winn.

Navigant Research (2016) Drones for Wind Turbine Inspection Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Inspection Services for Wind Turbines: Global Market Assessment and Forecasts, Retrieved from https://www.navigantresearch.com/research/drones-for-wind-turbine-inspection

9.5 Human factors, UAS Remote Warfare

Human Factors, UAS Remote Warfare and the Ethical and Moral issues involved


Robert J. Winn

ERAU-WW-ASCI638

12/18/2015

Abstract
For millennia, wars have set the stage for the inception and the need for advanced weaponry. Mankind has understood that those with the most advanced technology may surely win a war or at best instill enough fear of retribution in any opponent, that a war should not be undertaken in the first place. From the days of the spear, or bow and arrow to the current unmanned drones that operate in remote areas of the world, mankind will continue to develop weapons that will provide them with a distinct advantage over an enemy. Along with these advancements come the cries for ethical and moral responsibility of those that retain the technology. This paper will address those responsibilities as they pertain to use of unmanned drones in remote arenas and the human factors involved with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) compared to that of manned fighter operations. Seven technologies that have transformed warfare will be included in the paper and a discussion regarding the continued use of UAS in warfare, and what to expect in regards future improvements of their capabilities.
Keywords: advanced technology, drones, ethics, morality, remote warfare, responsibility, weaponry
 
Human Factors, UAS Remote Warfare and the Ethical and Moral issues involved
War has a long history that dates back to the dawn of civilization, but armies have come a long way since the spear, or the bow and arrow. Advances in technology have led to faster airplanes, laser-guided weapons, and unmanned, bomb-carrying vehicles (Chow, 2013). But none of these technologies have been introduced without relentless discussions by those claiming these advanced weapons should be wielded without some ethical or moral responsibility.
The most recent advancement in weaponry used today is that of the unmanned aircraft system (UAS) or most commonly referred to as a Drone. It has not been exempt in any means from those discussions regarding ethical and moral responsibility, but by nature of its “unmanned” perception has drawn even more attention by critics.
In order to grasp an understanding of how drones provide a higher level of responsibility than that of their predecessors, six other technologies that have transformed warfare have been presented.
As with any new technology, human factors issues associated with that technology arise. UAS have introduced human factors not previously seen by manned operations performing the same missions. How these human factors are mitigated will be addressed by any future advancement to the technology.
Culture and Values
Sociologists define culture as the beliefs, values, behaviors and material objects that define a people’s way of life. (Macionis, 1995, p. 62). A cultures or societies values are further defined by their ethics and morals or their perception of right or wrong.
Ethics
The field of ethics (or moral philosophy) involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong behavior. Ethics, as a theory, has been divided into many fields of study; Metaethics, normative ethics and applied ethics, the latter of which involves examining specific controversial issues such as nuclear war and the use of drones in remote warfare. It is from this area of study that determines how societies shape their opinions of what is right or wrong with wars and how technologies should or shouldn’t be used in them.
The Seven
Denise Chow presented in her article 7 Technologies that transformed warfare (2013) each of these technologies have presented their own ethical, moral as well as human factor issues:
• Drones- Combat drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles, enable troops to deploy weapons in war while safely remaining thousands of miles away from the front lines of the battlefield. As such, the lives of drone pilots are not in danger, which helps the military limit the number of combat fatalities.
• Fly-by-wire- Fly-by-wire technology replaces manual flight controls with an electronic interface that uses signals generated by a computer and transmitted by wires to move control mechanisms. The introduction of fly-by-wire systems in aircraft enabled more precise computer guidance and control.
• Submarines- Submarines revolutionized naval warfare by introducing underwater vessels capable of attacking enemy ships. The first successful submarine attack on a warship occurred during the American Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865. In February 1864, the Confederate submarine CSS H.L. Hunley sank the USS Housatonic in the waters off South Carolina.
Today, the military uses submarines to carry missiles, conduct reconnaissance, support land attacks, and establish blockades.
• Tomahawk missiles- The Tomahawk is a type of long-range cruise missile designed to fly at extremely low altitudes at subsonic speeds, enabling the weapons to be used to attack various surface targets. These jet engine-powered missiles were first used operationally during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. The missiles travel at speeds of approximately 550 miles per hour (880 km/h), and use GPS receivers to pinpoint their targets more accurately.
• Stealth aircraft- Stealth aircraft help pilots evade detection in the sky. While planes cannot be completely invisible to radar detection, stealth planes use a range of advanced technologies to reduce the aircraft's reflection, radio frequency spectrum, and radar and infrared emissions. Stealth technology increases the odds of a successful attack, since enemies have a harder time finding, tracking and defending against these aircraft.
The development of stealth technology likely began in Germany during World War II, but some of the most well-known modern examples of American stealth aircraft include the F-35 Lightning II, the F-22 Raptor and the B-2 Spirit.
• Space weapons- Space weapons include a range of warheads that can attack targets on Earth from space, intercept and disable missiles traveling through space, or destroy space systems or satellites in orbit. During the Cold War, both the U.S. and the former Soviet Union developed space weapons, as political tensions escalated.
While the militarization of space remains controversial, the U.S., Russia and China have developed anti-satellite weapons. Several test firings of these warheads have been successful in destroying satellites in orbit, including a 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test that destroyed one of the country's defunct weather satellites.
• Nuclear Weapons- Nuclear bombs are mankind's most destructive weapons. The world's first nuclear weapons, or atomic bombs, were developed by physicists working on the Manhattan Project during World War II.
The Manhattan Project, which began in 1939, has become one of the most well-known secret research programs. The first nuclear bomb was detonated on July 16, 1945, the explosion created a massive mushroom cloud, and the bomb's explosive power was equivalent of more than 15,000 tons of TNT.
In August 1945, two atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. The bombings effectively ended World War II, but ushered in decades of global fear of nuclear annihilation. To date, the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only uses of nuclear weapons in war.
Human Factors
There are numerous human factors associated with both manned and unmanned weapons systems. However, one distinct advantage of using unmanned drones in remote warfare is that it takes the limitations of manned (pilot–on–board) operations out of the equation. No longer are the flight restrictions of manned operations a factor. The drone can remain airborne for as long as its capabilities will allow, where operations of manned weapons are restricted by the physical capabilities of the pilot over longer periods of time.
This allows for more precise targeting, as the drone can hover over a target for longer periods of time to ensure that a target has been positively identified and when the decision to “take-it out” has been given, the target has been isolated as much as possible to reduce the effects of collateral damage.
Artificial Intelligence
Reg Austin (2010) suggested “the study of Artificial Intelligence probably began in the 1930s and has enjoyed a roller-coaster ride in similar fashion to that of UAS development. One is a bottom-up approach which attempts to develop neural networks akin to the operation of the human brain. The other, known as top-down, attempts to simulate the performance of a human brain by using high speed computer algorithms”. Until the Micro-Control Processor or brain of the UAS has been improved neither of these approaches will be proven.
When and if that that day comes, the implementation of this advanced technology in future wars will be decided by the ethics and morals of a global society, which must consider allowing a weapon to think for itself and target the very species that created it.
 
References
Austin, R. (2010) Unmanned aircraft systems : UAVs design, development and deployment Reston, Va. : American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics ; Chichester : Wiley, c2010.
Chow, D. (2013) 7 Technologies that transformed warfare LiveScience, November 19, 2013 Retrieved from http://www.livescience.com/41321-military-war-technologies.html
Macionis, J. J. (1995) Sociology 5th edition, Culture Chapter 3,What is Culture?, By Prentice –Hall Inc.

9.7 - Blog: Case Analysis Effectiveness

For the past 9 weeks, I have been an active student enrolled in the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University-WorldWide-ASCI638 Human Factors in Unmanned Systems course. During this time, the other students and I were required to perform and present a case analysis of a subject of our own choosing relating to the numerous human factor issues that are associated with both manned and unmanned operations. The case report needed to demonstrate our understanding of the course topics by analyzing, evaluating, and developing recommendations for addressing an issue associated with human factors in the realm of unmanned aerial systems operations. We were required to retain a connection to a minimum of five course learning outcomes. We needed to identify an underlying issue or problem and propose a recommendation or hypothesis to mitigate the issue. I chose to perform my case analysis on Human Factor Challenges Associated with Maintenance of Unmanned Aircraft Systems.

The foundation of my 35+ years in aviation is maintenance and due in part to my current position as an Airworthiness Inspector assigned to the UAS Integration Office located in Washington, D.C.; I felt the subject matter was something that I could clearly sink my teeth into. During my research I became more familiar with human factors issues surrounding unmanned launch, recovery, long duration operations, fatigue, human performance, Ground Control Station (GCS) design, use of automation, Situation Awareness (SA), Crew Resource Management (CRM), integration into the National Airspace System (NAS), attitudes and perspectives of both government agencies and public entities, use of technology to compensate for no-pilot-onboard, and regulatory issues and solutions.

What I was surprised to learn thru my research was that analysis of maintenance failures associated with Human Factors in unmanned aircraft systems is not on the front table for discussion. I attributed this lack of available information to be directly related to the rapid advancements in technology regarding these systems and the regulators, manufacturers and operators inability to keep up with the continued airworthiness requirements for what is assumed by most of those players and the general public to be either a toy or a mindless drone that requires no additional oversight regarding maintenance activity. In my personal opinion this attitude may prove to be a grave mistake.

Regarding the case analysis as a tool that will benefit my current or future career:
• I found the process of collecting significant data to support my identified problem and proposed mitigation's similar to how I approached resolving issues in my previous two FAA assignments as 1) a manufacturing Inspector and 2) a Maintenance Review Board Chairman assigned to the Aircraft Evaluation Group (AEG). In both of those positions when presented an issue that needed clarification and/or a regulatory response (as would always be the case) I relied on the Regulations, Advisory Circulars, Orders (Inspector guidance) and personal experience to provide a response that was within regulatory guidance and mitigated issues based on a risk based approach.

My only recommendation to enhance the learning experience would be to allow for a final peer review of pre-selected case analysis reports. Not only would it offer feedback to the author on the final/post draft paper, but provide additional theoretical perspectives for the reviewer. Sounds heavy doesn’t it?

8.7 HUMAN FACTOR CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH MAINTENANCE OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

Running head: HUMAN FACTOR CHALLENGES 1

Human Factor Challenges Associated with Maintenance of Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Robert J. Winn

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University-WW-ASCI 638




 
Abstract
The expeditious pace with which Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS) presents many challenges. In meeting these challenges, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as mandated by congress in the FAA Modernization and Reform Act (FMRA) of 2012, was tasked to “develop a comprehensive plan to safely accelerate the integration of civil unmanned aircraft systems into the National Airspace System.” Once integration has been achieved, processes and procedures addressing continued airworthiness of UAS must be developed, achieved and understood in order to keep these systems, as well as the general public, property and the NAS safe. Unfortunately, due to the fast pace with which these unmanned systems have been introduced previously established maintenance programs applicable to manned aviation do not address those aspects particular to unmanned programs. The dissimilarities between manned and unmanned systems, have called attention to numerous Human Factor issues. This case study will introduce Human Factors that are associated with these systems, present accident data and the challenges associated with unmanned aircraft systems maintenance programs.
Keywords: airworthiness, human factors, maintenance, public, safety, unmanned aircraft system,
 
Human Factor Challenges Associated with Maintenance of Unmanned Aircraft Systems
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as mandated by congress in the FAA Modernization and Reform Act (FMRA) of 2012 was tasked to “develop a comprehensive plan to safely accelerate the integration of civil unmanned aircraft systems into the National Airspace System.” Once integration has been achieved, processes and procedures addressing continued airworthiness of UAS must be developed, achieved and understood in order to keep these systems as well as the general public, property and the NAS safe. These processes and procedures will be addressed in regulations to ensure UAS are maintained in an airworthy condition.
The regulations must address the airworthiness of the UAV, qualifications of the operator (pilot), and any special operating rules when the UAV cannot meet the same requirements as manned aircraft (Cooke,2006). But the issue is that the regulations are developed after UAS integration into the NAS has already taken place.
The following section is taken directly from the FAAs Roadmap for UAS integration. It clearly shows that certification of UAS airframes is not on the radar until 2020/2030 and that research is still needed to support any regulations to ensure the continued airworthiness of the airframe /system.
3.2 Airframe Certification
Description of the challenge: Enable the rapid and affordable airframe certification for all types of UAS through increase emphasis on structural analysis and reduction in airframe testing. The existing basis of certification does not cover the new and novel materials and manufacturing processes being used in the manufacturing of UAS. As these methods and materials continue to evolve, research is needed to support an airworthiness determination and continue to ensure airworthiness over the life of the aircraft.
Goals:
Goal 1: Certify an airframe by analysis verified by test, 2020
Goal 2: Develop certification standards for advanced materials and structural design, 2020
Goal 3: Continued airworthiness through onboard health monitoring, 2030 (Roadmap, 2012).

Unfortunately, due to the fast pace with which these unmanned systems have been introduced to the general public, previously established manned maintenance programs do not address aspects significant to unmanned systems. The dissimilarities between manned and unmanned systems have called attention to numerous Human Factor issues. Human factors are a multidisciplinary approach to examining system design, training, experience, and individual motivation, with the objective of positively influencing human performance (USI, 2015). Two conceptual models used to analyze those human factor issues and for assessing and mitigating human factors in aviation maintenance are presented below.
SHEL
The original SHEL concept was developed using the first letters of each basic component, Software, Hardware, Environment and Liveware. The ICAO SHELL model (Fig. 1) introduced by Hawkins in 1975 illustrates how the concept is structured by conjoined blocks.

Figure 1 SHELL model
Source http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/File:Liveware.jpg
This building block diagram is only intended as a basic aid to understanding Human Factors:
• Software - the rules, procedures, written documents etc., which are part of the standard operating procedures.
• Hardware - the Air Traffic Control suites, their configuration, controls and surfaces, displays and functional systems.
• Environment - the situation in which the L-H-S system must function, the social and economic climate as well as the natural environment.
• Liveware - the human beings - the controller with other controllers, flight crews, engineers and maintenance personnel, management and administration people - within in the system.
PEAR
In an article published in April 2007, Dr. William Johnson presented another conceptual model, where PEAR is used to recall four considerations for assessing and mitigating human factors in aviation maintenance:
• People who do the job; where Physical, Physiological, Psychological and Psychosocial factors are examined.
• Environment in which they work; considers the Physical and Organizational aspects
• Actions they perform; considers the WHAT (i.e. steps, performance, amount of people, communication [oral, visual, written] and information control requirements
• Resources necessary to complete the job. Considers procedures/work cards, Manuals/bulletins/FARs, Test equipment, Tools, Computers, paperwork /signoffs, Ground handling Equipment, Fixtures, materials, task lighting additional manpower and training.
Much like the building blocks in the SHELL model, the PEAR model provides basic factors to facilitate examination of a specific maintenance program. If those areas are weak or robust in nature they will be identified. This information is necessary to ensure that appropriate mitigations to correct them are implemented.
Hurdles
The Unmanned Safety Institute (USI) published a course workbook Building Safe sUAS Organizations (2015) which identified problems associated with UAS technology;
• The explosive number of systems available on the market combined with the relative low barriers to entry has attributed to UAS operations in the NAS as being crowded and dangerous.
• Many of the commercial UAS operators are amateurs turned “professional” and operate with complete ignorance of regulations and guidance.
• Even those who wish to comply with the regulations lack the aviation backgrounds and do not know where or how to begin.
• Those with manned aviation backgrounds find the unmanned systems challenging.
• Original Equipment Manufacturers are new to the aerospace industry and lack the ability to adapt to continued airworthiness requirements.
System Description
A description of a manned system is not very complicated. The aircraft or fuselage is the core component which facilitates the power supply/engine(s), fuel, communication/navigation equipment and provides a command and control platform for the pilot(s) free from external environmental distractions.
Unmanned systems are significantly different, in that the “system” consists of these primary separate components;
• Air vehicle
• Control station
• Payload
• Navigation Systems
• Communications –up/down data links
• Launch and Recovery equipment
• Operator/Pilot
UAS Incident Data
As with any new technology rushed to market, the UAS industry has been plagued by failures at a rate of approximately 1 in every 200 flying hours. These failures are directly related to lack of system standards, certification and poor maintenance oversight.
About 80% of maintenance mistakes in manned aviation involve human factors and if not detected would lead to accidents. Reports regarding unmanned aircraft (UA) accidents have been shown to be higher than that of manned aviation. In order to improve the safety of these systems identifying and understanding the factors involved must be accomplished. The most reliable source for UA accident data currently is the military. The military has a relatively long history of UA use and is diligent in accurately recording information pertaining to accidents/incidents (Williams, 2004).
Accident Data/Classification
The military takes a two-step approach in the classification of UA accidents. The first step takes a rather broad approach to identify those accidents that were attributed to Human factors (Liveware/People) or system component failure (hardware). Within this first step a “Maintenance” category is included to identify those accidents directly attributed to maintenance personnel. In the second step, those accidents classified as related to human factors were classified according to specific human factors issues that are commonly addressed in current research (Williams, 2004).
Data classification from the U.S Army Hunter program shows that accidents attributed to the Aircraft (hardware) accounted for 50% of the Hunter accidents. However, the data also shows that Human Factors and Maintenance errors combined for 56% of the programs accidents. Data, associated with U.S Air Force Predator failures attributes Maintenance (17%), Human Factors (67%) and Aircraft (42%) as the causal factors.
Knowledge
In the book, Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems, by Barnhart, Shapee and Marshall (2011) it was presented that new UAS and their technologies do not fit neatly into the currently accepted training programs, programs that have been proven effective for manned operations. Additionally, these flight systems are being produced faster than the existing flight-training regime can react to them. To compound these training deficiencies, new technology systems that perform similar functions do not look alike and operator interactions with these systems often are completely different. A case could be made that these same issues, regarding the inability to keep up with rapid technological advances, associated with unmanned systems would also be realized by those responsible for the continued airworthiness and maintenance of these systems.
 
System Maintenance
Maintenance activities are classified into two categories, that of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, each with its own challenges. Scheduled tasks include routine inspections, adjustments, and time replacements of components. Although the distinction between scheduled and unscheduled maintenance is widely used in the aviation industry, UAS operators do not tend to make a clear distinction between the two. This is partly because in the absence of maintenance procedures, virtually all maintenance tasks are unscheduled (Hobbs, 2008).
Scheduled
Scheduled or preventative maintenance is normally accomplished during a prescribed schedule, recommended by the system manufacturer and or developed by the operator. Conducting these inspections and performing the required maintenance tasks are essential to ensuring that those parts and or systems that have a life limit or known time between failure (TBF) rate are addressed. Scheduled tasks tend to be performed frequently and become familiar, routine activities for the technician. The routine nature of such tasks can increase the chances of absent-minded errors such as memory lapses (Hobbs, 2008).
Unscheduled
Unscheduled maintenance is just what it sounds like. It is a required action due to a mishap where damage was incurred by the system, or requires maintenance be performed to conduct an analysis and repair of a system or hardware failure. Fault identification and diagnosis can be a time-consuming part of UA maintenance, particularly when faults involve avionics or computer systems (Hobbs, 2008).
Due to the lack of manufacturing procedures and guidance unscheduled maintenance can impose undue stress on the mechanic or operator as the lack of a general understanding of the system or repair requirements can cause a significant delay in meeting operational (airtime)/customer induced expectations.
Maintenance Challenges
UAS maintenance is defined as any activity performed on the ground before or after flight to ensure the successful and safe operation of the system. Small UAS maintenance bears little similarity to conventional aviation maintenance as it is currently unregulated, and is rarely performed by personnel with formal maintenance qualifications. (Hobbs, 2008).
In July 2013, the FAA published Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Operational Approval Notice 8900.227 which stated that UAS Maintenance Qualifications, ratings and training requirements would be established as more data is collected and a regulatory guideline is developed. To date commercial sUAS operators are only required to make a self-certifying statement that the UAS will be maintained in an airworthy condition for operation in the NAS. However, no verification by the FAA is conducted to ensure that the operator has the training or knowledge to show an understanding of what “airworthy” means or that adequate inspection and maintenance procedures have been developed by the manufacturer or the operator to ensure the continued airworthiness of the system.
The bottom-line, the general public lacks the training and understanding that is required to ensure that an “aircraft” and its systems are in a condition for safe operation. This is even more of an issue due to proliferation of these systems available to the untrained public.
The complexity of these systems combined with relatively low reliability will translate into higher mishap rates and higher risk. It is therefore imperative that before and after every flight the system must be inspected for damage or malfunctioning equipment. It is equally important that the system is transported and stored in a safe and secure location (USI, 2015).
Conclusion
It is difficult to identify the knowledge and skills needed by UAS maintenance personnel, due to the ever changing advancements in technology and system design. It is clear however, that UAS maintenance personnel require a significantly different skill set to their counterparts in manned aviation. System components such as laptop computers, modems, and radio communication systems are critical to the safety of unmanned flight and present significant human factor issues. Future requirements or guidance for UAS maintenance training or qualifications must go beyond the traditional manned aviation maintenance programs and should include those topics associated with the advanced UAS technology.
 
References
Barnhart, Richard K., Shappee, Eric, and Marshall, Douglas M. (2011). Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems. London, GBR: CRC Press, 2011. ProQuest ebrary. Web. 8 December 2015.
Cooke, Nancy J., Pringle, Heather, and Pedersen, Harry, eds. Human Factors of Remotely Operated Vehicles, Volume 7. Amsterdam, NLD: JAI Press, 2006. ProQuest ebrary. Web. 8 December 2015.
FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012, 112th Congress 2d Session, Report 112-381, Conference Report to accompany H.R. 658 Retrieved from http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-112hrpt381/pdf/CRPT-112hrpt381.pdf
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7.6 IMPLEMENTING OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT

Running head: IMPLEMENTING OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT 1
Implementing Operational Risk Management to Improve
Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) Missions
Robert J. Winn
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University-WW-ASCI638


Abstract
The unmanned aircraft system (UAS) industry has been growing at a significant rate. This growth has identified the need to establish risk assessment and hazard analysis mitigations to address unforeseen safety issues related to these systems and their operations. The UAS operational phase can be subdivide into several general stages: planning, staging, launch, flight, and recovery. Applying the appropriate hazard analysis tool within each stage will allow for early identification and ultimately early resolution of safety issues. This research paper will identify a small UAS (SUAS) that is currently in use in either the commercial or military sector and present an Operational Risk Management (ORM) assessment tool that can be used by the sUAS operators to safely assess their ability to accomplish the mission. This paper will also show the development of the ORM assessment tool by presenting a Preliminary Hazard List (PHL), a Preliminary Hazard Assessment (PHA) and the Operational Hazard Review and Analysis (OHR&A) and when used together provides sUAS operators the ability to safely integrate the National Airspace System (NAS).
Keyword: Analysis, Assessment, Hazard, Operations, Risk,


Implementing Operational Risk Management to Improve
Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) Missions
System safety is essential for both manned and unmanned systems when operating in the NAS. In a paper presented by Donald E. Gramp of the FAA, dated October 29, 2010, he stated:
“Small unmanned aircraft, as with other unmanned aircraft, are operated by a pilot physically separated from the aircraft. This renders the pilot incapable of conforming to the provisions of 14 CFR 91.113 with respect to seeing and avoiding other aircraft while operating in visual meteorological conditions. It also presents unique challenges in terms of maintaining the electronic connectivity essential to the safe operation and seamless integration of sUAS into the NAS. The hazard analysis included in this assessment reflects the implications of these attributes”.
The following hazards listed in order of greatest risk to the NAS are included in this assessment:
• Fly-away protection failure
• Loss of control
• Lost visual contact with UA
• Pilot/observer error
• Loss of voice communication with ATC
• Loss of voice communication (pilot/observer)
Thru hazard analysis, operators can potentially identify hazards associated with a particular phase or stage of the operation. A typical system safety task for hazard identification involves the preparation of a preliminary hazard list (PHL). This is accomplished by reviewing lessons learned, accident reports, and other historical data (Stephans, 2012). Having identified potential hazards, a subjective evaluation regarding probability, severity and exposure to those hazards is performed. The purpose of the evaluation is to determine the level of risk associated with the hazards; if it is deemed acceptable, if it can be eliminated, reduced or if the operation needs to be cancelled altogether. A robust risk management program (RMP) consists of three major parts: a hazard assessment, a prevention program and an emergency response program (Stephans, 2012).
For the benefit of this research paper, the AeroVironment Raven RQ-11B sUAS will be analyzed to identify potential hazards associated with a particular phase of its operation(s).
Raven
The Raven is the most widely used sUAS in the world. It can be hand launched and is controlled by a ground based operator either manually or preprogrammed for autonomous operation using advanced avionics and GPS navigation.
Preliminary Hazard list
The Preliminary Hazard List (PHL) is developed by individuals most familiar with the sUAS operation and a particular stage or phase of that operation. By brainstorming possible safety concerns associated with a stage or phase of operation, the PHL is created. The PHL tool (Fig.1) is instrumental in evaluating any one of the specific stages in the RAVENs operations (e.g. planning, staging, launching, flight and recovery). Once the hazards have been listed a determination as to the probability and severity of the hazards must be performed.
Probability/Severity
Probability is classified as frequent, probable, occasional, remote, or improbable. Severity is categorized as catastrophic, critical, marginal, or negligible (Barnhart, 2011). Once the hazards have been classified an initial risk level (RL) must be identified. Assessed risks are expressed as a Risk Assessment Code (RAC) which is a combination of one severity category and one probability level. For instance, if we determined that launching the RAVEN from a field that has trees nearby then a probability of impacting a tree would be classified as Probable and be rated a probability level “B” (reference Fig. 1) and the severity category described as Marginal would be rated a “3” (reference Fig. 2).

Figure 1-Probability matrix adapted from MIL-STD-882E
Department of Defense Standard Practice System Safety


Figure 2-Severity matrix adapted from MIL-STD-882E
Department of Defense Standard Practice System Safety


Risk Assessment Code
Assessed risks are expressed as a Risk Assessment Code (RAC) which is a combination of one severity category and one probability level. In our example our RAC is expressed as “3B”. Therefore, when used in conjunction with the risk assessment matrix (RAM) (Fig.3) found in MIL-STd-882E a risk level of Serious is determined.

Figure 3-Risk assessment matrix adapted from MIL-STD-882E
Department of Defense Standard Practice System Safety

Preliminary Hazard Analysis
The preliminary hazard analysis (PHA), allows us to determine ways to mitigate the previously identified hazards and initial risks. As depicted in Figure 4 a Raven staging and launch process is broken down into identified hazards, its probability of occurrence, the severity of risk, and mitigating actions. Using the RAC/RAM previously expressed of 3B/Serious we can determine that the Mitigation Action for Item S-3 is; “ensure clear launch flight path; issue launch warning.” And thereby the Resultant Risk Level (RRL) is classified as Medium downgraded from serious.

Figure 4-Preliminary Hazard List/Analysis adapted from EWOB dated July 16, 2014

Operational Hazard Review and Analysis
The Operational Hazards Review and Analysis tool (Fig. 5) is used to identify and evaluate hazards throughout the entire process or operations. The OHR&A is essential to ongoing hazards evaluation and provides the necessary feedback to assess the effectiveness of mitigating actions. Similar in form to the PHL/A, the different column in an OHR&A is the Action Review column which lists the mitigating actions identified in the PHL/A and determines if they were satisfactory (Barnhart, 2011).

Figure 5 Operational Hazards Review and Analysis retrieved from EWOB dated July 16, 2014

Operational Risk Management
Risk management activities are designed to assist the project manager and team members in understanding previously identified risks, the probability and consequences of failure and to identify and implement appropriate mitigations. As can be seen in Figure 6, Subtask 2 Implementation mitigations and those directly responsible for management of the activity are identified.

Figure 6-Organizational Risk Management Worksheet Retrieved from EWOB dated July 16, 2014.

References
AV-AeroVironment (2012, October). AeroVironment’s Puma All Environment (Ae) small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS), Puma AE White Paper, presented at the initial project safety review FAA/LA-ACO, Lakewood, CA.
Barnhart, Richard K., Shappee, Eric, and Marshall, Douglas M. Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems. London, GBR: CRC Press, 2011. ProQuest ebrary. Web. 1 December 2015.
EWOB (2014) Managing Risks in sUAS Operations retrieved from http://lewob.blogspot.com/2014/07/managing-risks-in-suas-operations.html
Gramp, D.E. (2010) Small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Safety Risk Management Assessment Retrieved from https://avssp.faa.gov/avs/afs80/afs-86/Shared%20Documents/Small%20Unmanned%20Aircraft%20System%20(sUAS)%20Notice%20of%20Proposed%20Rule%20Making%20Safety%20Risk%20Management%20Assessment.pdf