I am a graduate student of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical
University (ERAU) currently enrolled in UNSY 501 Application of Unmanned
Systems. As presented in the course syllabus:
This nine week course prepares
students to understand the application of unmanned systems and their respective
elements and technology to the operational domains, including atmospheric, exo-atmospheric,
ground, and maritime environments. It includes applications, business cases,
selection criteria, limitations and constraints, and ethical, safety, and legal
considerations. Students will research, appraise, and recommend unmanned system
tasking, environmental operational requirements, and system collaboration
opportunities.
In realizing these course objectives students have been
tasked with creating a research blog as a means of documenting our research as
it relates to certain articles applicable to unmanned systems in both the
civilian and military sectors.
My first blog for this week’s assignment is focused on the
future of UGVs in the civilian sector and discusses the advantages and
disadvantages of this technology.
Intel / Strategic
Analytics
A recent study and research of
autonomous vehicles reported that by the year 2050, driverless vehicles will
account for $7 trillion worth of economic activity and new efficiencies. That activity will include nearly $4 trillion
from driverless ride-hailing and nearly $3 trillion from driverless delivery
and business logistics (Morris, 2017).
The study also claims that because of the autonomous nature
of driverless vehicles and their potential for greater safety, nearly half a
million lives could be saved between 2035 and 2045. One can assume the reason that
immediate gains from this technology are not achieved until 2035 is due
primarily to a cultural hurdle and not a technical one. Andrew Moore, science dean at Carnegie Mellon
recently stated “No one is going to
want to realize autonomous driving into the world until there’s proof that it’s
much safer, like a factor of 100 safer, than having a human drive” (LaFrance, 2015).
What the study failed to account for was the contradiction
of transportation innovation that may complicate the report’s conclusions. Where newer technology is intended to solve
our transportation woes it induces an adverse effect by increasing demand for
that technology. A prime example is that of the “induced demand” that often
instantly clogs newly-built highways (Morris, para. 5, 2017).
The report also claimed that driverless cars could
eventually save 250 million commuting hours as the global trend towards urbanization
becomes a significant reality. An
adverse opinion was provided by D. Muoio in her article, Self-driving
cars could be terrible for traffic — here's why (2017);
Self-driving cars might make your future commute a lot more pleasant, but
they won't eliminate traffic (para. 1).
Lew Fulton, a co-director of the STEPS program at UC Davis' Institute of
Transportation Studies (ITP), told Business Insider that autonomous vehicles
won't fix congestion woes unless a pricing system is put in place that
discourages zero-occupancy vehicles. "We are especially concerned about zero-occupant vehicles that can
happen with automated vehicles, Fulton said. "That scenario is especially plausible with private ownership of those
vehicles and no limits to what we can do with them."
For example, many companies are interested in programming autonomous cars
to run errands or pick-up packages, but these efforts could increase traffic by
multiplying the number of zero-occupant cars, or "zombie cars," on
the road, Fulton said.
Congestion could also worsen as companies like Lucid Motors explore
designing self-driving vehicles around comfort, like installing
reclining seats (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Reclining
seats in Lucid Motors' autonomous car, the Lucid Air
Where urbanization increases and populations become more
centralized the need for personal transportation is no longer an issue. However, over populated areas become less
appealing to some as urbanization leads to lack of jobs, air pollution, negative
impact on biodiversity, disease and crime (Reese, 2017). Not wanting the urban way of life driverless
cars could actually encourage some people to live even farther away from
workplaces, or to take even more daily trips, because they can spend the time
in their car working.
References
LaFrance, A.
(2015). Self-Driving Cars Could Save 300,000 Lives Per Decade in America Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/09/self-driving-cars-could-save-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/
Morris, D.Z.
(2017). Driverless Cars Will Be Part of a $7 Trillion Market by 2050 Retrieved
from http://fortune.com/2017/06/03/autonomous-vehicles-market/
Reese, J. (2017).
5 Major Problems of Urbanization Retrieved from http://peopleof.oureverydaylife.com/5-major-problems-urbanization-7031.html
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